Emission Trading and climate change

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  1. #17001
    4K Club Member Marc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentButDeadly View Post
    I was intrigued by this. They put out a tender for the power and reckoned this was the best deal and at three quarters of the best bid for a coal fired plant.

    I am curious about the potential fallback position for SA if the deal or proponent goes south before the plant is commissioned. What was the second best option I wonder?
    Fear is the foundation of most government.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marc View Post
    When you see a small flock of them it'll mean a coal fired station is underway. When there's a proper flotilla...nuclear power.
    Joined RF in 2006...Resigned in 2020.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PhilT2 View Post

    Another cherrypicked article *snip*
    Maybe relevant to humans who live in the upper atmosphere; meanwhile down here on surface Earth only the flapping wings of flying pigs are providing relief from rising temperatures...

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    Looking to buy two half-finished nuclear reactors? It may be your lucky day.

    For sale: two half-finished nuclear reactors (never used)

    https://www.commercialrealestate.com...c-all-alwayson
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    Trump explainng clean coal technology. "They take out the coal... and they clean it"

    What Donald Trump Meant by 'Clean Coal' in Phoenix Speech | Time.com

    Lots more people now predicting that he will not last a full term.

  6. #17006
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    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    Looking to buy two half-finished nuclear reactors? It may be your lucky day.

    For sale: two half-finished nuclear reactors (never used)

    https://www.commercialrealestate.com...c-all-alwayson

    And why, because it's cheaper to burn gas for baseload! I'm hoping that outcome isn't something you're considering a win.

    the concrete has been cast, the co2 mostly spent, and they've dropped at the finishing straight because there's suddenly more gas about ( at guess, coal seam)

  7. #17007
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhilT2 View Post
    Trump explainng clean coal technology. "They take out the coal... and they clean it"

    What Donald Trump Meant by 'Clean Coal' in Phoenix Speech | Time.com

    Lots more people now predicting that he will not last a full term.
    To call trump dumb is an insult to stupid people

  8. #17008
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentButDeadly View Post
    When you see a small flock of them it'll mean a coal fired station is underway. When there's a proper flotilla...nuclear power.
    Japanese government planning to build 45 new coal fired power stations to diversify supply - ABC Rural - ABC News
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhilT2 View Post
    Lots more people now predicting that he will not last a full term.
    He's even turning on his close supporters and members of the republican party.

    If he had half a brain he would cultivate the media as the media like it or not have big influences at election times.

  10. #17010
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    Default Emission Trading and climate change

    So they are planning a flotilla of flying pigs...when they've released them into the wild then and only then can you revel in your smugness...
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  11. #17011
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    With a declining population and increased efficiency leading to decreased demand it is predicted that most of the 45 new power stations will never actually get built. Certainly some will, but as replacement for older plant. Either way Japan remains committed to the Paris agreement.
    Japan’s thermal power to drop 40% by 2030 : RenewEconomy

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    I think the Japanese population has only just started it's decline thanks to the Fukushima disaster and probably the whole planet eventually

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    The Japanese population has been in decline for many years. Someone told me that sometime in 2300 there will only be one person left in Japan.

  14. #17014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bros View Post
    The Japanese population has been in decline for many years. Someone told me that sometime in 2300 there will only be one person left in Japan.
    They've been where we're now since the 1990's. Stagflation. Only a 30 year head start!
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentButDeadly View Post
    They've been where we're now since the 1990's. Stagflation. Only a 30 year head start!
    Yes our population will go into a steep decline. We won't see it but our grandchildren will.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bros View Post
    Yes our population will go into a steep decline. We won't see it but our grandchildren will.
    Grandchildren?
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentButDeadly View Post
    Grandchildren?
    There will be a few.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bros View Post
    There will be a few.
    True. But will there be enough?
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilentButDeadly View Post
    True. But will there be enough?
    We'll never know.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bros View Post
    Yes our population will go into a steep decline. We won't see it but our grandchildren will.
    Gee Bros, I didn't realise you were an octogenarian.
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

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    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    Gee Bros, I didn't realise you were an octogenarian.
    I was wondering when someone would find the mistake. I looked up the population growth for Australia and it keeps going up but Japan is going down to oblivion. They forecast the Australian population to be 30 to 40 mil by 2050. Don't know where all the food and water will come from.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bros View Post
    I was wondering when someone would find the mistake. I looked up the population growth for Australia and it keeps going up but Japan is going down to oblivion. They forecast the Australian population to be 30 to 40 mil by 2050. Don't know where all the food and water will come from.
    It won't, and that's the point. Food production has been in decline for a decade or two due to over-production, overdrawing of natural resources, etc. There's only 10% of the edible biomass in the oceans that was there a few decades ago. Sure, humanity has got better at harvesting those ever declining resources, but that is just compounding the problem. Hard limits to exponential growth hid hard and much faster than expected. If a resource is harvested at a rate doubling every decade there is only 1 decade between 50% being left, and none being left, even if the resource has been reliably harvested for thousands of years. Like your water example...
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

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    So, what's the easiest, least offensive way to kill 3 to 4 billion first world people AND keep the third world exactly where it should be ? Growth, growth, growth. We must have growth. Beautiful, unsustainable growth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ringtail View Post
    So, what's the easiest, least offensive way to kill 3 to 4 billion first world people AND keep the third world exactly where it should be ? Growth, growth, growth. We must have growth. Beautiful, unsustainable growth.
    No need to kill anyone - just lets live within the planet's resources. What's the point of pissing 99.9% of every resource against the wall anyway? Our rubbish - less than 50kg per year into landfill. Our electricity consumption - about ½ what comes off the 1500 watt array on our roof, our water consumption - what falls on the roof. What do we miss out on? Nuthn. NUTHN. Got NAS, massive Home Theatre system, air conditioning (and insulation), two cars (one is a sports car for fun), dishwasher, monitored burglar alarm, basically every mod con - but efficient ones. And we travel overseas most years to visit the outlaws, all within an audited 3 tons of CO2 emissions per year, which is about ⅛ of the Australian average. And we offset that by revegetating and reafforestation projects. For example in the past month we've helped plant about 5,000 trees, some of which we grew from seed ourselves. We aren't doing this for our kids (we don't have any) we're doing it because it is the right thing to do for the planet and its inhabitants, even the ones who think we are nuts!
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  25. #17025
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    Quote Originally Posted by ringtail View Post
    So, what's the easiest, least offensive way to kill 3 to 4 billion first world people AND keep the third world exactly where it should be ? Growth, growth, growth. We must have growth. Beautiful, unsustainable growth.
    Virtual reality. Check out a spectacular piece of fiction called 'Shovel Ready'.

    There's a more geeky and less violent version of the same idea called 'Ready Player One' which has been turned into a forthcoming movie by some hack director by the name of Spielberg...
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  26. #17026
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    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    No need to kill anyone - just lets live within the planet's resources. What's the point of pissing 99.9% of every resource against the wall anyway? Our rubbish - less than 50kg per year into landfill. Our electricity consumption - about ½ what comes off the 1500 watt array on our roof, our water consumption - what falls on the roof. What do we miss out on? Nuthn. NUTHN. Got NAS, massive Home Theatre system, air conditioning (and insulation), two cars (one is a sports car for fun), dishwasher, monitored burglar alarm, basically every mod con - but efficient ones. And we travel overseas most years to visit the outlaws, all within an audited 3 tons of CO2 emissions per year, which is about ⅛ of the Australian average. And we offset that by revegetating and reafforestation projects. For example in the past month we've helped plant about 5,000 trees, some of which we grew from seed ourselves. We aren't doing this for our kids (we don't have any) we're doing it because it is the right thing to do for the planet and its inhabitants, even the ones who think we are nuts!
    Surely killing a few wouldn't do any harm though.

  27. #17027
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    As in China, Japan's new coal fired power stations are part of an emissions reduction strategy. They will reduce total coal consumption through the retirement of older, less efficient fossil fuel based generation. https://www.iea.org/countries/membercountries/japan/
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

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    Meanwhile the deck chairs on planet Earth are rearranged and countries play pass-the-parcel on responsibility, wilfully ignorant of the predicament being created.


    https://www.climaterealityproject.or...ampaign=CRinPA
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

  29. #17029
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    [QUOTE=John2b;1061092]As in China, Japan's new coal fired power stations are part of an emissions reduction strategy. They will reduce total coal consumption through the retirement of older, less efficient fossil fuel based generation./QUOTE]

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    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    It won't, and that's the point. Food production has been in decline for a decade or two due to over-production, overdrawing of natural resources, etc. There's only 10% of the edible biomass in the oceans that was there a few decades ago. Sure, humanity has got better at harvesting those ever declining resources, but that is just compounding the problem. Hard limits to exponential growth hid hard and much faster than expected. If a resource is harvested at a rate doubling every decade there is only 1 decade between 50% being left, and none being left, even if the resource has been reliably harvested for thousands of years. Like your water example...
    Food production in decline?

    where are you talking about, australia, Japan, globally, cos it doesn't fit with what's happening out there in the real world, where we are year in year out successfully feeding the globe despite rampant population growth in the countries that can least afford it.

    technology has increased yields spectacularly over the decades, and genetics will give another uptick on that front over the coming decades as well, especially with changing climate so modifying crops can do more with less

    yes Phil, doesn't make sense I know. Japan can hit targets because they aren't growing, but they need to replace a whole heap of nuclear that they decided to retire due to irrational fears.

  31. #17031
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    [QUOTE=phild01;1061095]
    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    As in China, Japan's new coal fired power stations are part of an emissions reduction strategy. They will reduce total coal consumption through the retirement of older, less efficient fossil fuel based generation./QUOTE]
    For each new coal fire power station in China, thousands of inefficient coal fired boilers have been shut down. That's one reason why China's coal consumption has been in decline for several years, even though the economy is growing.
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

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    [QUOTE=John2b;1061103]
    Quote Originally Posted by phild01 View Post

    For each new coal fire power station in China, thousands of inefficient coal fired boilers have been shut down. That's one reason why China's coal consumption has been in decline for several years, even though the economy is growing.
    Seems you like what they are doing but I thought you would object to new coal fired power stations!

  33. #17033
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    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    ...technology has increased yields spectacularly over the decades, and genetics will give another uptick on that front over the coming decades as well, especially with changing climate so modifying crops can do more with less.
    Irrespective of genetics, natural or modified, crop outputs are dependent on crop inputs - diesel, water, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulphur, trace elements, the 'right' amount of heat and light and enough hours of cold in winter. GMO crops can't make protein if one of the necessary inputs is missing, or sometimes if one is in oversupply. Not all food crops benefit from rising CO2 either; in fact yields of some are in decline already as a consequence of fossil fuel burning.

    Soils need a healthy microscopic life to break down the underlying geological material to create soil and release trace elements and micronutrients that crops need. This process is independent of the veracity of crop production and when the trace elements and micronutrients are depleted, there's not much that can be done with genetics to compensate.

    The vast areas of once productive land has been lost for decades due to erosion, loss of top soil, salinity, which are consequences of land clearing, and urban sprawl. Food production has to compete for water with fossil fuelled and nuclear fired boiling water electricity generation. There isn't enough coastline for all electricity to be generated there without destroying the remnant fish spawning habitat. There simply isn't enough fresh water to feed the current world population and increase the use of water for electricity generation.

    Most nitrogen based fertiliser for commercial production is made from fossil oil or gas, a declining resource. Phosphorus comes from guano based rock deposits, also a finite and declining resource.

    GMO can increase yield, but often at the expense of flavour (e.g. tomatoes) or protein content (e.g. grains). Most GMO research has been based on pesticide resistance, the creation of "Round-Up Ready" crops. This has given rise to "superweeds" which are resistant to herbicides and are another factor in the declining area of productive land. The USA has lost 24,000,000 hectares of productive land due to superweed infestation.

    The edible biomass in the oceans is less than 10% of what was there 100 years ago, due to unsustainable levels of fishing. In fact, there's more mass of plastic in the oceans today than there is mass of fish.

    Climate is changing so fast that it is challenging for plant geneticists to keep up with it. New varieties of fruit trees with lower requirements of chill hours for bud set need to be developed, but trees generally take years to reach maturity. In Australia it is quite frequent to have regional crop failures of apples, cherries, kiwi fruit, etc, due to warming winters.

    When exponential growth hits a hard limit it does so blindingly quickly, as the planet is about to find out. In fact, people with their heads in the sand won't even see it coming, until it hits them like a tsunami.
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

  34. #17034
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    Such a happy soul John .....

    The thing about exponential graphs of anything, is that it never continues ad Infinitum. Population isn't exponential, neither is food demand, nor as we are now finding out, fossil fuel use (when is peak oil coming...)

    in the scientific literature, about the least common GMO I see, is something to do with roundup or weeds, you are too Monsanto focused mate - it's about disease resistance, using less herbicides, drought resistance increasing yield per plant etc. plenty is corporate developed because a farmer is happy to pay more for seed that returns more crop. But there are plenty more improvements particularly in the third world available for agriculture, and producing more doesn't mean more inputs - ag is just one of the major success stories for humans

    runoff has has to be managed, because this effects fish stocks too, but we do treat the oceans as a free for all.

    no doubt, some places will be changing their crops over time - difficult though, I haven't kept an eye on the rest of the world, but the model predictions of dryness for Australia east haven't really born out, so we are getting temp increases, possibly drier winters but overall average rainfall. Of course as soon as we get another El Niño, the doomsayers will be back out, right now however we are getting away with it.

    you would have watched al gores latest by now surely John, is it just as dramatic as last time?

    (I'm expecting him to set back proper environmentalism in the US another 10 years again)

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    Just saw school children protesting and advocating same sex marriage on ABC news. Indoctrination at play in our schools!

  36. #17036
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    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    Such a happy soul John .....
    I am very happy. Thank you for sharing your concern!

    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    The thing about exponential graphs of anything, is that it never continues ad Infinitum. Population isn't exponential, neither is food demand, nor as we are now finding out, fossil fuel use (when is peak oil coming...)
    Exponential growth never continues ad infinitum because it can't - doh! Peak oil has been and gone. "Unconventional" oil is filling the gap since peak oil. And that's another serious reason for the loss of prime agricultural land that I hadn't mentioned in my previous post. Thanks for bringing it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    in the scientific literature, about the least common GMO I see, is something to do with roundup or weeds
    I'm not reading the GMO literature. Does it mention the 24,000,000 hectares of herbicide resistant superweeds in the USA alone?

    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    But there are plenty more improvements particularly in the third world available for agriculture, and producing more doesn't mean more inputs - ag is just one of the major success stories for humans
    There are many improvements possible to agriculture, particularly in the third world. You have to accept your cherished magic potato sack story is a myth though. More output means more input QED.

    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    runoff has has to be managed, because this effects fish stocks too, but we do treat the oceans as a free for all.
    The jellyfish and slime like it though...

    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    no doubt, some places will be changing their crops over time - difficult though
    Yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    I haven't kept an eye on the rest of the world, but the model predictions of dryness for Australia east haven't really born out, so we are getting temp increases, possibly drier winters but overall average rainfall. Of course as soon as we get another El Niño, the doomsayers will be back out, right now however we are getting away with it.
    Overall rainfall totals are meaningless when because of climate change the rain falls when it is destructive rather than productive. Floods, anyone?

    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    you would have watched al gores latest by now surely John, is it just as dramatic as last time?

    (I'm expecting him to set back proper environmentalism in the US another 10 years again)
    I have not ever watched any of Gore's films or even seen him interviewed. I don't need a celebrity to sell me science. In fact, I don't need a scientist to sell me science. Everything in climate science is confined by the laws of conservation of energy. Imperfect as they (i.e. Newtonian Physics) may be, EVERY human achievement is only possible because those laws work well enough.
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

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    "Laws of conservation of energy"? That's a bit left field and not in my understanding standard climate science.

    the earth isn't a closed system - we are right next to a vast zero degree kelvin space that happily takes energy radiated outwards. It doesn't make sense simply because periods of high volcanic activity cool the earth not warm it because the atmosphere is really what governs the biosphere temp.

    im happy to stick with mainstream science thanks.

    unless you have some quality explanations from mainstream science sites? Happy to read them

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    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    "Laws of conservation of energy"? That's a bit left field and not in my understanding standard climate science.

    the earth isn't a closed system - we are right next to a vast zero degree kelvin space that happily takes energy radiated outwards. It doesn't make sense simply because periods of high volcanic activity cool the earth not warm it because the atmosphere is really what governs the biosphere temp.

    im happy to stick with mainstream science thanks.

    unless you have some quality explanations from mainstream science sites? Happy to read them
    Hahaha you joking right? You say the Earth's climate system (and its inward and outward radiation, which is what the entire CO2 issue is about) is NOT subject to the laws of conservation of energy? Can you cite ANYONE (Malcolm Roberts and other total crackpots excluded) to support that notion?
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

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    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    Hahaha you joking right? You say the Earth's climate system (and its inward and outward radiation, which is what the entire CO2 issue is about) is NOT subject to the laws of conservation of energy? Can you cite ANYONE (Malcolm Roberts and other total crackpots excluded) to support that notion?
    What, do you English at all?

    i didn't say anything like that. You said you don't need scientists to sell you climate science, I mean wtf - you smarter than everyone else? You brought up laws of conservation of energy as if that is all that's needed to explain climate science

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    Quote Originally Posted by pharmaboy2 View Post
    What, do you English at all?

    i didn't say anything like that. You said you don't need scientists to sell you climate science, I mean wtf - you smarter than everyone else? You brought up laws of conservation of energy as if that is all that's needed to explain climate science
    I accept science - that's why I don't need to be sold. The Earth's entropy is subject to the laws of conservation of energy. Which bit of that don't you get? It IS all that's needed to understand the Earth's energy balance. And climate science cannot contravene that reality.
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

  41. #17041
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    Whether you think it is all that is needed or not, the laws of thermodynamics cause a few issues in denier circles.
    THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Why conventional Greenhouse Theory Violates the 1st Law of Thermodynamics

    Maybe we need Wein and Planck as well.

  42. #17042
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    Quote Originally Posted by phild01 View Post
    Just saw school children protesting and advocating same sex marriage on ABC news. Indoctrination at play in our schools!
    Marxism at work. Every value is a target, every asset is a target. The west is falling victim of it's own tolerance and democratic process.
    The fool and the idle are their agents.
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhilT2 View Post
    Whether you think it is all that is needed or not, the laws of thermodynamics cause a few issues in denier circles.
    THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Why conventional Greenhouse Theory Violates the 1st Law of Thermodynamics
    The model they are trying to debunk is nothing like the actual 'greenhouse effect', obviously a trivial misunderstanding of the process by a nincompoop, so it's a rather pointless strawman article. The pause never happened, either.
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

  44. #17044
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    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    The model they are trying to debunk is nothing like the actual 'greenhouse effect', obviously a trivial misunderstanding of the process by a nincompoop, so it's a rather pointless strawman article. The pause never happened, either.
    I have that site bookmarked because I can't find a better example of a failure to do basic maths among denier blogs. Though the competition is tough. Scroll down to the scenario he uses to illustrate how the first law can't possibly work. There's an input of 1unit, then magically a further 0.1 appears from nowhere, is radiated, reflected and then added to total radiation. In denier maths this is proof. From a person with a degree.

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    Well I just added to the unsustainability of resources, I pensioned off my 6yr old steam driven mobile phone and bought a smart phone. even though my other phone is still working but I want to find out what people are looking at when I go to the doctors, shopping center, walking along the road etc.

    I got an Iphone and I notice it has an expiry date. Looking into it it seems to be a date when apple wont support or my suspicious mind tell me it could be another Volkswagen and there is a part in the operating system which after this date will drastically slow down the phone and make it unreliable. Volkswagen kept their secret well and it took an outsider to find out what they had done.

    I'm not normally a person to throw something that is still working away but I must be getting soft in the head.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bros View Post
    Well I just added to the unsustainability of resources, I pensioned off my 6yr old steam driven mobile phone and bought a smart phone.

    You'll be able to read and post in the forum 24/7 no matter where you are.
    There is no middle ground between facts and fallacies - argumentum ad temperantiam

  47. #17047
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    Quote Originally Posted by chrisp View Post

    You'll be able to read and post in the forum 24/7 no matter where you are.
    I think not, or I hope not.

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    You might end up like me, my smart phone is for calls and the time. Have no intention of using the google store.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bros View Post
    I got an Iphone and I notice it has an expiry date. Looking into it it seems to be a date when apple wont support or my suspicious mind tell me it could be another Volkswagen and there is a part in the operating system which after this date will drastically slow down the phone and make it unreliable. Volkswagen kept their secret well and it took an outsider to find out what they had done.
    Not sure about the iPhone expiry date thing. Mine iPhone is even older than your 'steam phone' (purchased October 2010) and still works just fine. In fact, I sold quite a few thousands of dollars of test equipment that have been replaced by some relatively cheap iPhone apps and a few inexpensive interfaces. These are electroacoustic analysers and measurement tools which I use very frequently, almost daily.

    Volkswagen wasn't doing anything that nearly all auto manufacturers were doing, BTW. The mistake VW made was to boast about it within inner circles of the auto industry. Regulators have known only too well about the emissions breaches for many, many years, even decades, but because of the strength of the auto industry lobby, governments haven't given the regulators the power to act.
    Before you speak, ask yourself: Is it necessary, it is true, does it improve on the silence? - Baba

  50. #17050
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    Quote Originally Posted by John2b View Post
    Volkswagen wasn't doing anything that nearly all auto manufacturers were doing, BTW. The mistake VW made was to boast about it.
    They certainly weren't boasting about bypassing the emission controls when not under test.

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